New labor curves of dilation and station to improve the accuracy of predicting labor progress.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of failure to progress, the most common indication for intrapartum cesarean delivery, is based on the assessment of cervical dilation and station over time. Labor curves serve as references of expected changes in dilation and fetal descent. The labor curves of Friedman, Zhang et al and others are based on time alone and derived from mothers with spontaneous labor onset. However, labor induction is now common, and clinicians also consider other factors when assessing labor progress. Labor curves that consider the use of induction and other factors that influence labor progress have the potential to be more accurate and closer to clinical decision-making. OBJECTIVE: To compare the prediction errors of labor curves based on a single factor (time) or multiple clinically relevant factors using 2 modeling methods: mixed-effects regression, a standard statistical method, and Gaussian processes, a machine learning method. STUDY DESIGN: This was a longitudinal cohort study of changes in dilation and station based on data from 8022 births in nulliparous women with a live, singleton, vertex presenting fetus at ≥35 weeks of gestation with a vaginal delivery. New labor curves of dilation and station were generated with 10-fold cross-validation. External validation was performed using a geographically independent group. Model variables included time from the first exam in the 20 hours before delivery; dilation, effacement and station recorded at the previous examination; cumulative contraction counts; and use of epidural anesthesia and labor induction. To assess model accuracy, we calculated the differences between each model's predicted value and its corresponding observed value. These prediction errors were summarized using mean absolute error and root mean squared error statistics. RESULTS: (1) Dilation curves based on multiple parameters were more accurate than those derived from time alone. (2) The mean absolute error with the multifactor methods were better (lower) than those from the single-factor methods [0.826 cm (95% CI, 0.820-0.832) for the multifactor machine learning and 0.893 cm (95% CI, 0.885-0.901) for the multifactor mixed-effects method and 2.122 cm (95% CI, 2.108-2.136) for the single-factor methods; P<0.0001 for both comparisons]. (3) The root mean squared errors with the multifactor methods were also better (lower) than those from the single-factor methods [1.126 cm (95% CI, 1.118-1.133) P<0.0001 for the machine learning and 1.172cm (95% CI, 1.164-1.181) for the mixed-effects method and 2.504 cm (95% CI, 2.487-2.521) for the single-factor; P<0.0001 for both comparisons]. (4) The multifactor machine learning dilation models showed small but statistically significant improvements in accuracy compared to the mixed-effects regression models (P<0.0001). (5) The multifactor machine learning method produced a curve of descent with a mean absolute error of 0.512 cm (95% CI, 0.509-0.515) and a root mean squared error of 0.660 cm (95% CI, 0.655-0.666). (6) External validation using independent data produced similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: (1) Cervical dilation models based on multiple clinically relevant parameters showed improved (lower) prediction errors compared to models based on time alone; (2) the mean prediction errors were reduced by more than 50%; and (3) a more accurate assessment of departure from expected dilation and station may help clinicians optimize intrapartum management.

Cumulative deceleration area: a simplified predictor of metabolic acidemia.

OBJECTIVE: Fetal monitoring, ubiquitous in obstetrics is used to predict and prevent intrapartum fetal injury. Despite decades of education and nomenclature revision, clinicians show low agreement on key elements, including the types of deceleration and hence their presumed etiology. Cumulative deceleration area is not dependent on deceleration type and could potentially mitigate this problem. Although deceleration area has shown promise as a marker of acidemia, no reports have shown how deceleration area evolves in late labor. Advances in computerization allow for direct measurement of deceleration area and standard fetal heart rate (FHR) patterns. The objective of this study was to compare the evolution and discrimination performance of deceleration area and other FHR patterns in late labor in term neonates with metabolic acidemia (MA) and in those with normal cord gases. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included women with a term singleton (≥37 weeks) in cephalic presentation with cord gas data and FHR tracings available for analysis. MA included neonates with an umbilical artery base deficit >12 mmol/L (n = 132). Controls included those with normal cord gases (base deficit <8 mmol/L) and a 5-minute Apgar score of >6 (n = 1498). Deceleration area and other FHR patterns were summarized and compared in 30-minute segments over the last five hours. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were constructed and AUCs compared. RESULTS: Deceleration area had the highest AUC (0.702, 95% CI 0.655-0.749) and was a superior marker of MA compared to baseline (AUC 0.588, 95% CI 0.530-0.645), baseline variability (AUC 0.611, 95% CI 0.558-0.663), and number of late decelerations (AUC 0.582, 95% CI 0.527-0.637). CONCLUSION: Cumulative deceleration area reduces the necessity to determine deceleration type. In a single number, it objectively quantifies three important aspects of decelerations; frequency, depth and duration and was a superior marker of MA compared to baseline level, baseline variability and number of late decelerations. The acidemia group had higher deceleration area over the last two hours prior to delivery. This result indicates that the cumulative area and persistence of repetitive decelerations is important clinically.

Assessing driving fitness in dementia: a challenge for old age psychiatrists.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how old age psychiatrists consider the fitness of dementia patients to drive safely and the challenges they face. METHOD: Participants were interviewed using a semi-structured approach that explored topics including their approach to driving fitness and cessation, challenges experienced and previous training. Thematic analysis was used to generate main themes. RESULTS: Thirteen participants were recruited. Most felt they were not experts in driving fitness. Many found these assessments challenging for both themselves and their patients, with a negative impact on therapeutic alliance. There was a lack of formal training and variability both in the approach when considering fitness to drive as well as raising the issue of driving with patients. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the need to increase the availability of training for driving fitness, and to develop a standardised approach to help improve consistency amongst clinicians.

Shifting Patterns in Cesarean Delivery Scheduling and Timing in Oregon before and after a Statewide Hard Stop Policy.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the use and timing of scheduled cesareans and other categories of cesarean delivery and the prevalence of neonatal morbidity among cesareans in Oregon before and after the implementation of Oregon's statewide policy limiting elective early deliveries. DATA SOURCES: Oregon vital statistics records, 2008-2013. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study, with multivariable logistic regression, regression controlling for time trends, and interrupted time series analyses, to compare the odds of different categories of cesarean delivery and the odds of neonatal morbidity pre- and postpolicy. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We analyzed vital statistics data on all term births in Oregon (2008-2013), excluding births in 2011. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The odds of early-term scheduled cesareans decreased postpolicy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.70; 95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.74). In the postpolicy period, there were mixed findings regarding assisted neonatal ventilation and neonatal intensive care unit admission, with regression models indicating higher postpolicy odds in some categories, but lower postpolicy odds after controlling for time trends. CONCLUSIONS: Oregon's hard stop policy limiting elective early-term cesarean delivery was associated with lower odds of cesarean delivery in the category of women who were targeted by the policy; more research is needed on impact of such policies on neonatal outcomes.

Progressive Consent and Specimen Accrual Models to Address Sustainability: A Decade's Experience at an Oregon Biorepository.

BACKGROUND: The Legacy Biorepository is a College of American Pathologists-accredited biorepository operating within a seven-hospital healthcare system, with a decade's experience in specimen accrual, storage, and distribution. While standardization of our practices through accreditation remains a priority, we along with others face challenges with regard to sustainability. Purposeful changes in our consent process, which we term "progressive consent," are expected to improve sustainability and operational flexibility while increasing our scientific impact. METHODS: Until 2015, informed consent was performed primarily by biorepository staff at an estimated time of 1 hour per case. After a process improvement exercise, we successfully changed our informed consent process to a modified front-door model, with use of material and data for research as an opt-in or opt-out selection on the institutional patient informed consent form provided to surgery patients in the healthcare system. Successful implementation of this change required the engagement and participation of multiple stakeholders in healthcare system leadership, hospital administration, research, legal, regulatory, and patient care levels. RESULTS: A modified front-door consent enabled us to collect an additional 38 specimens in the first two quarters of 2016, with a time commitment of 15.75 hours, a time savings per specimen increasing in Q2 over Q1. We estimate a potential savings of 43 hours in 2016. This progressive model allowed us to maintain our frozen sample collection while increasing the availability of paraffin-embedded tissue and bodily fluids. Augmenting our tissue collection added little expense per case (approximately half that of each frozen tissue aliquot) and increased the range of biospecimens collected. CONCLUSIONS: Biorepository financial sustainability is a critical issue. Thorough evaluation and modification of existing procedures and collection models, as well as cost recovery initiatives, can translate into savings. Sustainability, process improvement, and scientific impact broadly overlap and continue to require operational critique and implementation of strategic changes.

Oregon's Hard-Stop Policy Limiting Elective Early-Term Deliveries: Association With Obstetric Procedure Use and Health Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of Oregon's hard-stop policy limiting early elective deliveries (before 39 weeks of gestation) and the rate of elective early-term inductions and cesarean deliveries and associated maternal-neonatal outcomes. METHODS: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study of Oregon births between 2008 and 2013 using vital statistics data and multivariable logistic regression models. Our exposure was the Oregon hard-stop policy, defined as the time periods prepolicy (2008-2010) and postpolicy (2012-2013). We included all term or postterm, cephalic, nonanomalous, singleton deliveries (N=181,034 births). Our primary outcomes were induction of labor and cesarean delivery at 37 or 38 weeks of gestation without a documented indication on the birth certificate (ie, elective early term delivery). Secondary outcomes included neonatal intensive care unit admission, stillbirth, macrosomia, chorioamnionitis, and neonatal death. RESULTS: The rate of elective inductions before 39 weeks of gestation declined from 4.0% in the prepolicy period to 2.5% during the postpolicy period (P<.001); a similar decline was observed for elective early-term cesarean deliveries (from 3.4% to 2.1%; P<.001). There was no change in neonatal intensive care unit admission, stillbirth, or assisted ventilation prepolicy and postpolicy, but chorioamnionitis did increase (from 1.2% to 2.2%, P<.001; adjusted odds ratio 1.94, 95% confidence interval 1.80-2.09). CONCLUSIONS: Oregon's statewide policy to limit elective early-term delivery was associated with a reduction in elective early-term deliveries, but no improvement in maternal or neonatal outcomes.

Signal ambiguity resulting in unexpected outcome with external fetal heart rate monitoring.

We report cases of unexpected adverse fetal outcome from monitored labors in which the fetal heart rate tracing was interpreted as reassuring. In these cases, portions from another signal source, usually maternal, were imperceptibly substituted into the fetal tracing in a way that masked the evidence of fetal compromise.